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Data-driven Insights for Informed Decision-Making: Applying LSTM Networks for Robust Electricity Forecasting in Libya

Agaal, Asma, Essgaer, Mansour, Farkash, Hend M., Othman, Zulaiha Ali

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate electricity forecasting is crucial for grid stability and energy planning, especially in Benghazi, Libya, where frequent load shedding, generation deficits, and infrastructure limitations persist. This study proposes a data-driven approach to forecast electricity load, generation, and deficits for 2025 using historical data from 2019 (a year marked by instability) and 2023 (a more stable year). Multiple time series models were applied, including ARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, dynamic regression ARIMA, exponential smoothing, extreme gradient boosting, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. The dataset was enhanced through missing value imputation, outlier smoothing, and log transformation. Performance was assessed using mean squared error, root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error. LSTM outperformed all other models, showing strong capabilities in modeling non-stationary and seasonal patterns. A key contribution of this work is an optimized LSTM framework that integrates exogenous factors such as temperature and humidity, offering robust performance in forecasting multiple electricity indicators. These results provide practical insights for policymakers and grid operators to enable proactive load management and resource planning in data-scarce, volatile regions.


Integration of LSTM Networks in Random Forest Algorithms for Stock Market Trading Predictions

King, Juan C., Amigo, Jose M.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The aim of this paper is the analysis and selection of stock trading systems that combine different models with data of different nature, such as financial and microeconomic information. Specifically, based on previous work by the authors and applying advanced techniques of Machine Learning and Deep Learning, our objective is to formulate trading algorithms for the stock market with empirically tested statistical advantages, thus improving results published in the literature. Our approach integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with algorithms based on decision trees, such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting. While the former analyze price patterns of financial assets, the latter are fed with economic data of companies. Numerical simulations of algorithmic trading with data from international companies and 10-weekday predictions confirm that an approach based on both fundamental and technical variables can outperform the usual approaches, which do not combine those two types of variables. In doing so, Random Forest turned out to be the best performer among the decision trees. We also discuss how the prediction performance of such a hybrid approach can be boosted by selecting the technical variables.


A Physics-Informed U-net-LSTM Network for Data-Driven Seismic Response Modeling of Structures

Biswas, Sutirtha, Yadav, Kshitij Kumar

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate and efficient seismic response prediction is essential for the design of resilient structures. While the Finite Element Method (FEM) remains the standard for nonlinear seismic analysis, its high computational demands limit its scalability and real time applicability. Recent developments in deep learning, particularly Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models, have shown promise in reducing the computational cost of nonlinear seismic analysis of structures. However, these data driven models often struggle to generalize and capture the underlying physics, leading to reduced reliability. We propose a novel Physics Informed U Net LSTM framework that integrates physical laws with deep learning to enhance both accuracy and efficiency. By embedding domain specific constraints into the learning process, the proposed model achieves improved predictive performance over conventional Machine Learning architectures. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between purely data driven methods and physics based modeling, offering a robust and computationally efficient alternative for seismic response prediction of structures.


Long short-term memory and Learning-to-learn in networks of spiking neurons

Guillaume Bellec, Darjan Salaj, Anand Subramoney, Robert Legenstein, Wolfgang Maass

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recurrent networks of spiking neurons (RSNNs) underlie the astounding computing and learning capabilities of the brain. But computing and learning capabilities of RSNN models have remained poor, at least in comparison with artificial neural networks (ANNs). We address two possible reasons for that. One is that RSNNs in the brain are not randomly connected or designed according to simple rules, and they do not start learning as a tabula rasa network. Rather, RSNNs in the brain were optimized for their tasks through evolution, development, and prior experience. Details of these optimization processes are largely unknown. But their functional contribution can be approximated through powerful optimization methods, such as backpropagation through time (BPTT). A second major mismatch between RSNNs in the brain and models is that the latter only show a small fraction of the dynamics of neurons and synapses in the brain. We include neurons in our RSNN model that reproduce one prominent dynamical process of biological neurons that takes place at the behaviourally relevant time scale of seconds: neuronal adaptation.



Long short-term memory and Learning-to-learn in networks of spiking neurons

Guillaume Bellec, Darjan Salaj, Anand Subramoney, Robert Legenstein, Wolfgang Maass

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recurrent networks of spiking neurons (RSNNs) underlie the astounding computing and learning capabilities of the brain. But computing and learning capabilities of RSNN models have remained poor, at least in comparison with artificial neural networks (ANNs). We address two possible reasons for that. One is that RSNNs in the brain are not randomly connected or designed according to simple rules, and they do not start learning as a tabula rasa network. Rather, RSNNs in the brain were optimized for their tasks through evolution, development, and prior experience. Details of these optimization processes are largely unknown. But their functional contribution can be approximated through powerful optimization methods, such as backpropagation through time (BPTT). A second major mismatch between RSNNs in the brain and models is that the latter only show a small fraction of the dynamics of neurons and synapses in the brain. We include neurons in our RSNN model that reproduce one prominent dynamical process of biological neurons that takes place at the behaviourally relevant time scale of seconds: neuronal adaptation.



DeepSITH: Efficient Learning via Decomposition of What and When Across Time Scales

Neural Information Processing Systems

After enough time has elapsed, the events that were presented close in time will gradually blend together, as illustrated in the bottom panel of Figure 1. We used the parameters presented in that work for the experiment with the adding problem used here. Table 1: Parameter values used for LSTM networks. Table 2: Parameter values used for LMU networks. "Coupled Oscillatory Recurrent Neural Network (coRNN): An Accurate and (Gradient) Stable Architecture for Learning Long Time Dependencies."



Advancements in synthetic data extraction for industrial injection molding

Rottenwalter, Georg, Tilly, Marcel, Bielenberg, Christian, Obermeier, Katharina

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning has significant potential for optimizing various industrial processes. However, data acquisition remains a major challenge as it is both time-consuming and costly. Synthetic data offers a promising solution to augment insufficient data sets and improve the robustness of machine learning models. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of incorporating synthetic data into the training process of the injection molding process using an existing Long Short-Term Memory architecture. Our approach is to generate synthetic data by simulating production cycles and incorporating them into the training data set. Through iterative experimentation with different proportions of synthetic data, we attempt to find an optimal balance that maximizes the benefits of synthetic data while preserving the authenticity and relevance of real data. Our results suggest that the inclusion of synthetic data improves the model's ability to handle different scenarios, with potential practical industrial applications to reduce manual labor, machine use, and material waste. This approach provides a valuable alternative for situations where extensive data collection and maintenance has been impractical or costly and thus could contribute to more efficient manufacturing processes in the future.